Hitters: composite score weighted 70% xBA gap (xBA vs. actual AVG) + 30% Zone Contact% signal (vs. ~80.5% league avg). Zone contact above average strengthens an upswing call; below average weakens it.
Pitchers: xBA allowed vs. actual BA against — when a pitcher's actual BA against exceeds what their underlying contact quality predicts, they've been unlucky and ERA should improve. The reverse signals incoming deterioration.
xBA uses plate-appearance denominator (not BIP-only) for a fair apples-to-apples comparison with AVG.
Minimum 80 PA (hitters) · 100 BF (pitchers) · 20-point composite gap threshold.
▲ Due for Upswing
Hitters underperforming contact quality · Pitchers getting unlucky on balls in play
▲
BA against
0.312
→
xBA allowed
0.223
112 PA
+0.090
▲
AVG
0.207
→
xBA
0.294
92 PA
+0.087
▲
AVG
0.181
→
xBA
0.266
116 PA
+0.085
▲
BA against
0.327
→
xBA allowed
0.244
104 PA
+0.083
▲
AVG
0.146
→
xBA
0.221
96 PA
+0.075
▲
AVG
0.160
→
xBA
0.233
150 PA
+0.073
▲
AVG
0.145
→
xBA
0.217
117 PA
+0.072
▲
AVG
0.143
→
xBA
0.214
84 PA
+0.071
▲
BA against
0.296
→
xBA allowed
0.232
203 PA
+0.063
▲
BA against
0.322
→
xBA allowed
0.261
146 PA
+0.061
▲
AVG
0.239
→
xBA
0.299
209 PA
+0.060
▲
BA against
0.270
→
xBA allowed
0.212
111 PA
+0.058
▲
AVG
0.178
→
xBA
0.234
214 PA
+0.056
▲
BA against
0.298
→
xBA allowed
0.242
114 PA
+0.056
▲
AVG
0.195
→
xBA
0.248
113 PA
+0.053
▲
AVG
0.250
→
xBA
0.302
240 PA
+0.052
▲
BA against
0.365
→
xBA allowed
0.315
271 PA
+0.050
▲
AVG
0.181
→
xBA
0.230
94 PA
+0.049
▲
AVG
0.129
→
xBA
0.178
101 PA
+0.049
▲
BA against
0.322
→
xBA allowed
0.274
118 PA
+0.048
▼ Due for Correction
Hitters overperforming contact quality · Pitchers getting lucky on balls in play
▼
BA against
0.171
→
xBA allowed
0.265
105 PA
−0.094
▼
BA against
0.240
→
xBA allowed
0.306
104 PA
−0.066
▼
AVG
0.298
→
xBA
0.234
84 PA
−0.064
▼
AVG
0.282
→
xBA
0.223
131 PA
−0.059
▼
AVG
0.274
→
xBA
0.218
124 PA
−0.056
▼
BA against
0.186
→
xBA allowed
0.242
102 PA
−0.056
▼
AVG
0.280
→
xBA
0.228
150 PA
−0.052
▼
AVG
0.274
→
xBA
0.225
234 PA
−0.049
▼
AVG
0.287
→
xBA
0.238
115 PA
−0.049
▼
BA against
0.186
→
xBA allowed
0.233
199 PA
−0.047
▼
BA against
0.171
→
xBA allowed
0.218
175 PA
−0.047
▼
BA against
0.229
→
xBA allowed
0.274
118 PA
−0.045
▼
AVG
0.200
→
xBA
0.156
85 PA
−0.044
▼
BA against
0.216
→
xBA allowed
0.260
255 PA
−0.044
▼
BA against
0.230
→
xBA allowed
0.273
113 PA
−0.043
▼
AVG
0.311
→
xBA
0.268
235 PA
−0.043
▼
AVG
0.250
→
xBA
0.208
128 PA
−0.042
▼
BA against
0.196
→
xBA allowed
0.238
102 PA
−0.042
▼
BA against
0.135
→
xBA allowed
0.176
104 PA
−0.042
▼
BA against
0.202
→
xBA allowed
0.244
198 PA
−0.042